OPEC to discuss the output oil freeze on 17 April

Everybody focuses on a global supply oil gut. Oil prices swung between gains and losses in North American trade on Thursday, as a broadly weaker U.S. dollar boosted the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities.

The prospect of less U.S. interest rate hikes this year according to United States Federal Reserve Chair Yellen   drove the dollar down against its major rivals..

Oil prices typically strengthen when the U.S. currency weakens as the dollar-priced commodity becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Yesterday the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels last week to an all-time high of 534.8 million barrels, underlining concerns over a domestic supply gut.

Saudi Arabia and fellow OPEC members Qatar and Venezuela agreed with non-OPEC member Russia to freeze output at January levels, provided other oil exporters joined in.

OPEC member Iran is expected to attend an oil producers meeting in Doha on April 17 to discuss an output freeze, although it may not necessarily partake in negotiations.

In the overbought territory - EUR/USD

The price has pierced the Bollinger band, as shown in the chart  on a 4 hour time frame and this confirms that the volatility is high. The piercing of the Bollinger band does has a significant importance  as an opportunity to buy or sell. The significance of the piercing of the Bollinger band is even higher  because  this takes place at an important level of support or resistance. Under the circumstances we are still a little away from the minor resistance zone.

The EUR/USD pair is trading above its upward trend line. This confirms that the trend is skewed towards the upside and as long as we remain above this trend line, the bias may remain for further upside move.

The reading for the Bollinger the upper and lower bands are 1.1201 and 1.1069 respectively.

The RSI is trading at 75 which is in the overbought territory and this may push the price lower or trigger a pause for the price action.

EURGBP. Key event of the week ‐ Eurozone CPI Report (March 31, 12:00

Inflation is a key aspect of Eurozone econom  and representatives of European Central bank are trying to   to boost it. Unfortunately, low oil price and slow reaction on economy stimulating measures  prevent  this intention.

At the moment Year-over-Year CPI remains negative, while the target is 2.5%.

If CPI actual results are higher that expectations – EUR will significantly strengthen

There is still the uptrend on EURGBP chart and for the last week EUR gained over 100 points yet again. 0.79277 and 0.79477 are the next important levels of support.

EURUSD. Second Key event of the week – US Unemployment rate and Nonfarm Payrolls (April 1, 15:30 GMT +3)

This Friday the most anticipated report will be published – US Unemployment rate and NonFarm Payrolls report. These are the most important news from the labor market and they have a massive impact on rate movements. Unemployment rate is more significant compared to Nonfarm report and market participants consider it first.

Numbers keeps decreasing (almost 3% for the last week), and that is a very good result. Then it will have  a positive effect on USD. 

USDCHF Advice: SELL

A similar formation is present as the previous two times on the 4h chart, however it may be the last one as the count shows it could resemble a C wave ending at 0.96515. Currently the prognosis is bearish following the movements since 27.11.2015 with a major support at the 0.9802 critical resistance level. For now the targets remain on the 0.95556 and 0.95152 supports, however if the level is to raise above 0.9802 it will show a change in direction for the trend and possible jump up for a strong 1st wave which is our fallback count. There is no real unusual movements this week from a fundamental standpoint and a more decisive movement is expected on Wednesday and/or Thursday.

How far will EUR/USD fall

As most banks around the world are closed today , there's not enough volume to trade so we should see more ranging /consolidating markets today.

Key support level to watch out for EUR/USD, end of day expiry would be 1.11530. By end of the day this pair should be ranging between 1.11500-1.11850.

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EUR/USD went  higher last week because of the meeting  on Wednesday, but since then, the world’s most widely-traded pair has slowly but surely given back most of those gains. Since last Thursday’s high, rates have been consistently edging lower within a near-term bearish channel, and based on the price action alone, the unit shows no signs of breaking this trend any time soon.

We are asking   how far will EUR/USD fall?  In our view, EUR/USD should logically be trading higher now than it was at the start of the last week. Therefore, we’d favor a bullish breakout and possible move back toward 1.1300 at some point next week   Of course we will  follow economic data. Price is the only thing that pays, so short-term EUR/USD traders may want to consider waiting until the unit has definitively broken the bearish channel one way or another before committing too aggressively.

Bottom in the US dollar against the Canadian dollar

We have been looking for a bottom in the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. 

It is been difficult, but now it appears that the technicals are turning. The chart from Bloomberg shows that the US dollar is moving above a trend line down off the January 20 high just below CAD1.47. The prospects of  bullish movement of the pair  may be will be helped by a expected positive employment report next week

We see here downtrend   from the end of February and the mid of March. It intersects today near CAD1.3200.

Now very important is the level CAD 1.3400-CAD 1.3460.

Oil prices went down the same day the USD peaked against the Canadian dollar. Oil prices put in a high on March 18, the same day the US dollar put in its low against the Canadian dollar. We expect downtrend of the Oil prices. 

GBPUSD Recommendation: BUY

Following an unexpectedly large drop this is a make or break moment for the pound/dollar. Each of the support going down was easily overtaken during the week and the rate is going close to the big one at 1.40620. In the meantime the RSI has fallen to 27% so a rise is expected soon. Now is a good time to buy with a close stop at the major support.
There are two backup scenarios where one is a turnaround and I am far from the idea at the moment and the other one is a bounce off the 1.39760 support which would rearrange the way that we view the waves in this formation. Right now the risk is low and potential bullish profits are high so my short positions just closed and the next few movement is the one we are expecting and it is crucial.
On the fundamental side the Crude Oil Inventories huge rise did not affect the USD as much as anticipated so not much to discuss really