Based on other wage
indicators, the previous month’s reading of 2.2% looked low compared to the
trend in other datasets (more like 2.5%). With that in mind, there is the
potential for some more encouraging wage growth figures over the next few
months, as pent-up demand in the labour market starts to translate into more
rapid pay rises.
After a couple of mixed
US labour reports, today’s data was fairly encouraging. Wage growth provided a
pleasant surprise to markets, coming in at 0.3% MoM vs 0.2% expectations and
taking the year-on-year change up to 2.3%. The rest of the report was fairly in
line with expectations - Non-farm payrolls came in a touch above consensus at
215k, roughly around what we believe to be the current underlying trend (around
200k). The unemployment rate ticked back up to 5%, in line with our forecast,
although not because of a correction in the household survey measure of
employment.
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