The talk of a Brexit continues to impact the GBP/USD. The pair now consolidates that could see some dramatic moves in the week ahead.
The technical indicators are showing some interesting signals as the RSI Oscillator remains relatively flat, near oversold territory, despite the recent price declines. There is some divergence between the indicator and price action that could be indicating a reversal of the short term trend.
Traders have to consider for the entry of a long position above the key 1.4170 resistance level. Alternatively, a break below the 1.40 handle would indicate a sharp push towards the bottom of the channel is likely. However, be aware of any short side move as the Risk/Reward ratio is not advantageous.
The pair is likely to wait upon the UK Manufacturing Production results before making a strong move. However, given the recent collapse in the pair’s value, the downside might be relatively limited. The most likely scenario is a sideways consolidation at the current level .
alexbranson_forex
Friday, 8 April 2016
Thursday, 7 April 2016
The only element
The Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the
committee's policy-setting meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes
offer detailed insights regarding the FOMC's stance on monetary policy, so
currency traders carefully examine them for clues regarding the outcome of
future interest rate decisions. Last night, FOMC minutes pushed US markets higher as the dollar dropped. The
stronger greenback is making the matter difficult for USAexporters as their
profit margin is constantly being squeezed. Now the weaker dollar will be a good
sign for US corporate earnings.
The rebound
in oil prices on the back of the crude inventory data has provided a much
needed lifeline for the energy sector. However, traders are questioning whether
it can last until the OPEC members meet in Doha.
The Japanese Yen has fallen below the critical
level of 110. Traders are hoping that the currency will be weaker.
The only
element which may keep investors on the edge, will be the weak global growth,
which could have a massive impact on the earnings.
Wednesday, 6 April 2016
Webinar Trading and Day Job 1: Trade setup
It has been a long practice for me to combine trading and work and it is excellent to see people organizing webinars like this one and sharing their extensive knowledge on the subject of trading.
As a person who has already attended similar webinars, I will attend again, I have to say that I am completely thrilled to see it being organized.
The topics are quite well conceived and the experts’ experience is , well… the most valuable thing one can draw out from events like this.
I can safely recommend this to anyone wishing to begin trading or just improve. Trading is a constant flux of rules and tendencies and we need to be on our toes.
Date: 7 April, Time:7pm-8pm Cost: Free Place:Online
Reccomend you to register here
As a person who has already attended similar webinars, I will attend again, I have to say that I am completely thrilled to see it being organized.
The topics are quite well conceived and the experts’ experience is , well… the most valuable thing one can draw out from events like this.
I can safely recommend this to anyone wishing to begin trading or just improve. Trading is a constant flux of rules and tendencies and we need to be on our toes.
Date: 7 April, Time:7pm-8pm Cost: Free Place:Online
Reccomend you to register here
Tuesday, 5 April 2016
To strengthen the US dollar
Since the beginning of the week, the USD/CAD pair has been growing. The growth in pair started amid statements made by the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz on Monday.
Today in the afternoon, a series of macroeconomic indicators are released in the US and Canada. The US trade deficit is widen to $47.06 billion. On the other hand, the pair can get support if Canada posts a bigger trade deficit than in the previous month. Moreover, favorable data on ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI can strengthen the US dollar
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is directed down. The pair is trading between the lower and the middle MAs of the indicator. MACD histogram is in the negative zone. Stochastic is moving up in the middle of its range.
It is recommended to wait for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2904, 1.2855.
Resistance levels: 1.3121, 1.3278, 1.3343, 1.3583
Today in the afternoon, a series of macroeconomic indicators are released in the US and Canada. The US trade deficit is widen to $47.06 billion. On the other hand, the pair can get support if Canada posts a bigger trade deficit than in the previous month. Moreover, favorable data on ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI can strengthen the US dollar
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is directed down. The pair is trading between the lower and the middle MAs of the indicator. MACD histogram is in the negative zone. Stochastic is moving up in the middle of its range.
It is recommended to wait for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2904, 1.2855.
Resistance levels: 1.3121, 1.3278, 1.3343, 1.3583
Monday, 4 April 2016
Look at Doha on April 17
Crude had
rallied (+44%) from its thirteen year low on a proposal by the Saudi’s, Russia,
Venezuela and Qatar to cap oil output and reduce a global surplus.
The
investors again are losing faith in crudes recent rally. Global fundamentals
just do not support oil prices. Perhaps more importantly, doubts are growing
over whether the major producers will be able to agree on an output freeze in
Doha on April 17.
Both WTI and
Brent retreated last week (-4%) for the first time since mid-February and
remain on the back foot starting this week.
Iran wants
to continue to produce until they can restore pre-sanction levels. While
the Saudi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said that his country would freeze
their output only if “Iran and other major producers do as well.”
It seems
that if an agreement could be reached to freeze output without Iran in Doha, it
would not amount to anything.
Futures
positions indicate that traders are
again adding to their ‘short’ positions and this after the liquidation of
record ‘shorts’ position that were squeezed in the +44% rally over the past
two-months.
Friday, 1 April 2016
Window for USD strength
Based on other wage
indicators, the previous month’s reading of 2.2% looked low compared to the
trend in other datasets (more like 2.5%). With that in mind, there is the
potential for some more encouraging wage growth figures over the next few
months, as pent-up demand in the labour market starts to translate into more
rapid pay rises.
After a couple of mixed
US labour reports, today’s data was fairly encouraging. Wage growth provided a
pleasant surprise to markets, coming in at 0.3% MoM vs 0.2% expectations and
taking the year-on-year change up to 2.3%. The rest of the report was fairly in
line with expectations - Non-farm payrolls came in a touch above consensus at
215k, roughly around what we believe to be the current underlying trend (around
200k). The unemployment rate ticked back up to 5%, in line with our forecast,
although not because of a correction in the household survey measure of
employment.
Thursday, 31 March 2016
OPEC to discuss the output oil freeze on 17 April
Everybody focuses on a global supply oil gut. Oil
prices swung between gains and losses in North American trade on Thursday, as a
broadly weaker U.S. dollar boosted the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities.
The prospect of less U.S. interest rate hikes this
year according to United States Federal Reserve
Chair Yellen drove the dollar down against its major
rivals..
Oil
prices typically strengthen when the U.S. currency weakens as the dollar-priced
commodity becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Yesterday the U.S.
Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories rose
by 2.3 million barrels last week to an all-time high of 534.8 million barrels,
underlining concerns over a domestic supply gut.
Saudi
Arabia and fellow OPEC members Qatar and Venezuela agreed with non-OPEC member
Russia to freeze output at January levels, provided other oil exporters joined
in.
OPEC
member Iran is expected to attend an oil producers meeting in Doha on April 17
to discuss an output freeze, although it may not necessarily partake in
negotiations.
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